Why is Bitcoin Going Down, and What are The Post-Halving Predictions?

After reaching a new all-time high above the $70k threshold in March, Bitcoin’s bullish run has weakened, and bears seem to have had the best out of the market. Amid the market confusion involving geopolitical unrest, the BTC halving event and US financial regulations, traders are unsure about their buying activities, and many are selling their holdings.

Bitcoin lost its new price position and dropped under $63,000 on April 15th. Many consider this a natural cycle before the halving event, while others fear an imminent Bitcoin crash. Let’s explore the recent events that affected the market and why is Bitcoin going down.

Why Did Bitcoin Crash?

The entire crypto market faces a new decline, as major currencies and altcoins lost the record positions they attained during the second half of March 2024. Ethereum reached the $4k threshold for the first time since 2022, while Bitcoin entered a new price record of $73,000, and other cryptos followed suit.

However, a market decline started on April 12th, taking most cryptocurrencies and drawing a new Bitcoin resistance today at $64,000 after a rebound from under the $60,000 level.

Bears are taking over the market with more selling efforts in a collective panic, and if bulls fail to clear the $64,000 area, the coin is expected to dip to the $58k-$59k range. But what caused this BTC crash?

Geopolitical Factors

On April 13th, the Middle East experienced escalated unrest as conflict sparked between Iran and Israel, elevating the ongoing dispute in the region. During times of war, the oil and USD prices go up in response to increasing demands. 

As a result, traders start investing in these two securities to capitalise on the increased prices, but at the expense of other asset classes, such as cryptocurrencies.

Many investors sold their stocks and cryptos to buy more USD-based pairs and oil commodities, and this increased selling pressure contributed to the BTC price decline. 

Bitcoin Halving 2024 Prediction

As of writing, only three days are left for the anticipated Bitcoin halving, where the mining rewards, coin price and supply are cut in half. Many experts describe the market unrest as part of the natural cycle before the event and that the Bitcoin price after halving, will rebound, similar to previous such network changes.

However, the ongoing circumstances increase the division between bulls and bears. 

Liquidation Pressures

Many investors had their positions leveraged as the market was experiencing unprecedented growth. However, the sudden strike caused many leveraged accounts to be liquidated as many traders could not support their positions.

This accelerated the market meltdown and dropped the market capitalisation from $1.40 to $1.24 trillion in a couple of days.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Let’s look at the BTC price closely and track the recent event in comparison with the exponential moving average indicator. This will give us an insight into current and potential trends.

Long-Term

We start by analysing the price with the EMA lines (200 days and 100 days). Here, we see a major divergence between the 100-day and 200-line lines. 

However, the market price is still way above both lines, indicating that the previous price growth is still way over its 200-day average and is more likely to remain in high price ranges.

At the same time, we see how the 100-day line became more steady at the end to align with the price decrease, where a new resistance level resides in the $64k range.

Short-Term

However, if we compare 30-day and 50-day EMA lines, we find that both lines follow the recent price drop. More prominently, the market price has significantly dropped under the 30-day line.

Despite the slight price drop under the 50-day line, the declining 30-day line triggers sell movement, which motivates many investors to liquidate their market positions.

Conclusion: Should I Sell Bitcoin?

The crypto market started Q3-2024 in the most unpredictable way. From reaching new record prices to Bitcoin going down and major price crashes triggered by geopolitical unrest, investors are confused about the market’s future.

The Bitcoin price today may indicate that selling is the best option at the moment. However, with the halving event coming soon and US regulators becoming more crypto-adaptive, the coin price is set to a new bull run.

Most of the anticipated price recovery is motivated by the fact that slashing the BTC supply by half will dynamically increase the coin price as the supply significantly decreases.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies, including meme coins, carries ingrained risks, and individuals should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.