After the crypto market crash in 2022, when multiple cryptocurrencies lost their value, and some were delisted from major exchanges, 2023 has seen recovery for several cryptos.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have been hot topics this year, with stories coming from major financial institutions and investment firms pleading to the US Securities and Exchange Commission to list them as tradable ETFs.
In the 3rd week of October, fake news on social media was spread about Bitcoin spot ETF approval, driving the BTC high and traders’ appetite higher. Let’s shed some light on this news impact and what it means for the crypto market.
Starting last year, major investment firms in the US started discussing the necessity of cryptocurrencies, majorly Bitcoin, as exchange-traded funds in the financial markets.
This introduction was driven by the need to have a safe haven investment similar to gold. This idea attracted more financial corporations like BlackRock and Fidelity to lead the application of listing spot ETF Bitcoin, highlighting the coin’s importance and futuristic use cases.
Another JPMorgan news article concluded that BlackRock Investments is going to use JPMorgran’s blockchain-based model for the first, which is expected to be in preparation for the expected BTC ETF adoption.
This news had the whole crypto community and investors at the edge of their seats, waiting for a response to the application that major investment firms in the US have fueled.
On October 16th, social media and news outlets circulated rumours about the SEC’s approval, sending Bitcoin price from $27,000 to almost $30,000 in 24 hours.
The price settled down after the Bitcoin ETF rumour was debunked. However, this gave the market a taste of what would happen if the application got final approval.
It is unclear when the Bitcoin spot ETF approval date will be, especially since the decision date was postponed twice this year.
However, experts believe that the question is not if but when the approval will be made. Market analysts believe that approval is inevitable, but the SEC has been postponing it due to an ongoing lawsuit with Grayscale Investments after the US banks collapsed earlier this year.
Financial experts argue that the response to the application is more likely in the spring of 2024, creating what’s likely to be the next crypto bull run after Bitcoin’s fourth halving event in April of the next year.
These ongoing events had the Bitcoin price on a rollercoaster throughout the year, most prominently in the fourth quarter of 2023, when the price trend started shooting upward.
We use the exponential moving averages as a Bitcoin price prediction tool on three different timelines: 10 – 50 – 200 days.
We start by comparing the 10-day EMA line to the 50-day EMA and notice a sharp increase in the price, pushing the 10-day EMA line way above the 50-day, which lasts until the day of writing, despite debunking the news as fake.
On October 16th, prices jumped from $27,000 to around $30,000 within a few hours before settling down to $28,500 by the end of the same day.
Afterwards, the fake BTC pump continued to rise in the following days to steadily reach $29,500 on October 20th.
Moreover, we compare the 10-day EMA line with the 200-day to find out how strong the expected trend is. We find the 10-day moving far and above the 200-EMA, hinting at a possible continuation of the price pickup.
However, these estimations can be turned over anytime, given Bitcoin’s volatility and fluctuating pattern throughout the whole year.
This prominent market movement was triggered by fake Bitcoin ETF news, which only shows us the importance of this event and the expected outcomes if the application gets finally approved.
Probably, it is the first time we see major players in the centralised economy calling for Bitcoin adoption. The prices are more likely to fluctuate in a positive direction, with more attention drawn to the next Bitcoin bull run prediction, awaiting possible market recovery in the first quarter of the next year.